Thursday, 3 November 2016

AMERICA PSYCHO



I WILL VOTE FOR TRUMP, DAMMIT

According to the latest CBS, ABC, etc, polls, Clinton is still likely to beat Trump - by percentile odds of 66% to 33% and change. But the current popular vote is much closer, probably tied with the error of margin, around 44% each. Trump has to win more key battleground states to win, and may not - but he is ahead in Florida...

We will all know, in a week, whether we live in a world gone madder, or just relatively mad.

While it seems likely calmer heads will prevail, the recent Brexit win shows that polls can mislead, especially when one of the options is considered a bit embarrassing, rude or even racist - and Trump qualifies for these, at least.

If 42-45% of Americans admit they would vote for Trump, what does that say about the ones not so vocal? For surely, they must be there, as well. Some of the undecided will slide, and more likely they will slide to the wilder and more exciting fringe candidate. As may the libertarians.

Eyewear predicts that Trump will just about manage to win the Presidency, somehow, and this will be a disaster for mankind; or he will lose, but very closely, perhaps even winning the popular vote, and will raise a huge fuss, and this will be a serious problem, but one more easily contained.

Yet either way, the fact that the world has a 33% chance of being at the mercy of a shrewd, crude, woman-hating power-mad egomaniacal madman, who will have access to the nuclear football, is hardly reassuring. America's tragedy of the moment is, its constitution did not allow a third term for the uniquely charming, capable, decent, rational, calm, intelligent, witty, kind, and serious, Mr Obama, one of the great people of our time.

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