The USSR has a history of crushing dissent, in the spring. One need only think of Prague. And, tanks sent from Moscow rolled into Budapest too. In both cities, in both countries, proud rebels opposed the moves. But the tanks crushed in the end. Russia is not the USSR, as I have been arguing, but since its Winter Games it has been playing a very aggressive sort of game with geo-politics. I think the reason is the Black Sea Fleet, and the emotive, and real, linguistic and ethnic ties between Russia proper and Crimea. President Putin, playing to the home crowd, would become a great iron man if he took back the Crimea. I fear he may just try. I am not sure what could or would stop him, short of thermo-nuclear threat, or severe economic sanctions. This is the closest the world has been on the brink of world war since before 1989 - in a quarter century. I don't think it is time to duck and dive just yet. But this is serious.
According to the latest CBS, ABC, etc, polls, Clinton is still likely to beat Trump - by percentile odds of 66% to 33% and change. But the current popular vote is much closer, probably tied with the error of margin, around 44% each. Trump has to win more key battleground states to win, and may not - but he is ahead in Florida...
We will all know, in a week, whether we live in a world gone madder, or just relatively mad.
While it seems likely calmer heads will prevail, the recent Brexit win shows that polls can mislead, especially when one of the options is considered a bit embarrassing, rude or even racist - and Trump qualifies for these, at least.
If 42-45% of Americans admit they would vote for Trump, what does that say about the ones not so vocal? For surely, they must be there, as well. Some of the undecided will slide, and more likely they will slide to the wilder and more exciting fringe candidate. As may the libertarians.
Eyewear predicts that Trump will just about manage to win th…
We will all know, in a week, whether we live in a world gone madder, or just relatively mad.
While it seems likely calmer heads will prevail, the recent Brexit win shows that polls can mislead, especially when one of the options is considered a bit embarrassing, rude or even racist - and Trump qualifies for these, at least.
If 42-45% of Americans admit they would vote for Trump, what does that say about the ones not so vocal? For surely, they must be there, as well. Some of the undecided will slide, and more likely they will slide to the wilder and more exciting fringe candidate. As may the libertarians.
Eyewear predicts that Trump will just about manage to win th…